Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
