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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd